INTRODUCTION TO SURVEY ESTIMATION A two-day short course sponsored by the Joint Program in Survey Methodology

MARCH 3-4, 2010
Presented at the Inn and Conference Center, Adelphi, MD

DAVID MORGANSTEIN
Senior Statistician and Vice President at Westat

RICHARD L. VALLIANT
Senior Research Professor, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan

COURSE OBJECTIVES
This short course provides an introductory exposure to producing estimates of population parameters from sample surveys.  It will examine the uncertainty of estimates resulting from sampling, through presentation of how sampling errors of survey statistics vary as a function of sample design and weighting procedures. 

The course discusses procedures for estimating descriptive statistics like means, percentages, population totals, quantiles as well as model parameters from sample surveys.  It also examines statistical procedures used in comparing subgroups on attributes measured in the survey.

The course presents inferential issues that arise in moving from sample-based statistics to describing the target population of the survey.  It also describes how to compute the sampling errors of survey estimates and how to make inferences from them to the population.  It describes current practices in weight adjustments and in the presentation and description of estimates made from sample surveys.  Practical exercises during the short course reinforce the lecture materials and handouts.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND
Researchers and analysts who need to produce statistical estimates based upon data collected via complex sample survey designs and who need to make inferences about those estimates.  The types of estimates to be discussed include: totals, means, percentages, quantiles and model parameters.  The elements of complex designs to be examined include: unequal weights, clustered, stratified and multi-stage designs. 

Attendees will benefit the most after the session if they have access on their job to software that computes sampling errors for estimates from complex survey data.  Such software will be needed to implement the course concepts in their work.

THE INSTRUCTORS

David Morganstein is a Senior Statistician and Vice President at Westat where he is the Director of its Statistical Group.  He has over 30 years of experience in sample design and variance estimation.  He is one of the developers of WesVar a program for computing sampling errors, and a faculty member of the Joint Program for Survey Methods.  He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and recipient of its Founders Award.  He is an elected member of the International Statistical Institute.

Richard Valliant is Senior Research Professor in the Survey Research Center, University of Michigan.  He received his Ph.D. in Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins University in 1983 and has over 30 years of experience in sample design and estimation using data from complex surveys. He is currently an Associate Editor of the Journal of Official Statistics,  and, has been an associate editor of Survey Methodology and the Journal of the American Statistical Association.  He is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and a faculty member of the University of Maryland. He is a co-author of the text, Finite Population Sampling and Inference: A Prediction Approach.  

CALCULATOR
Attendees should bring scientific calculators to use in numerical exercises.

COURSE MATERIALS
Registrants will be provided with a course lecture notebook.

MEALS
JPSM group continental breakfasts, lunches and refreshments are included in the course fee.

JPSM CITATION PROGRAM
The citation programs are built around the JPSM short courses. The JPSM Citation in Introductory Survey Methodology is designed to provide the working professional and interested students with state-of-the-art knowledge about current principles and practices for conducting complex surveys combined with practical skills of day-to-day utility. The JPSM Citation in Introductory Economic Measurement is designed for professional staff requiring a grounding in the principles and practices of economic measurement. Completion of the citation programs involves taking a semester-length JPSM credit-bearing course and eight JPSM short courses, of which four are specified core courses. For information on the Certificate and Citation Programs visit the website at http://www.jpsm.org or call 301-314-7911.

THE INN AND CONFERENCE CENTER
University of Maryland, University College (UMUC), 3501 University Boulevard E, Route 193, Adelphi, MD 20783 Phone: 301-985-7300  Room Reservations: 1-800-228-9290

The course will be held at The Inn and Conference Center. The hotel is located on Route 193 (University Boulevard East) at Adelphi Road, adjacent to the College Park campus of the University of Maryland. The College Park Metro Station, Green Line, is 1.8 miles from the hotel. Individuals are responsible for making their own overnight room reservations and for payment.

Hotel: http://marriott.com/property/propertyPage/WASUM
Campus Map (ICC Building 345): http://www.parking.umd.edu/themap/

TRAVEL RESOURCES
Commuter Information: www.commuterpage.com
Maryland Transit Administration: www.mtamaryland.com
University of Maryland Transportation: http://www.transportation.umd.edu/

METRO RAIL  (1.8 Miles)
College Park Station (Green Line): 4931 Calvert Road, College Park, MD 20740  www.wmata.com

• If you walk directly from the metro to the hotel will take you 30 minutes.
• Taxis are available on the east side of the metro in the second traffic lane.
• College Park Metro Shuttles (104 & 102): Shuttles run every 8 minutes. Shuttle 104 goes from the metro to the Adele H. Stamp Student Union. From the Union you can either walk 10 minutes to the hotel or transfer to the Campus Connector North Shuttle 102 which will take you close to the hotel.
• Bus (F6,C8,J4,17): A number of buses stop near the College Park Station and near the hotel. Buses run every 25-45 minutes.

TAXI
Taxis are located on the east side of the metro in the second traffic lane. Several taxi services operate in and around the University.

Greenbelt Taxi Service: (301) 441-8400
Langley Park Taxi: (301) 559-0000
Silver Cab of Prince Georges County: (301) 577-2000

BUS
Bus Bay Information from College Park – U of MD Station: http://www.wmata.com/rail/station_bus_maps/PDFs/College%20Park.pdf

College Park Metro Shuttle (104 & 102): The shuttle runs roughly every 8 minutes from a stop near the College Park Metro Station. Shuttle 104 goes to the Adele H. Stamp Student Union. From the Union you can either walk 10 minutes to the hotel or transfer to the Campus Connector North Shuttle 102 which will take you close to the hotel. (104 & 102): http://www.transportation.umd.edu/routes/commuter.html

WMATA Bus (C8) College Park – White Flint Line: The bus runs roughly every 30 minutes from a stop near the College Park Metro Station. Exit at Campus Drive and Adelphi Road, .07 miles W of the hotel. Walk 1 block NW on University Boulevard E. to the hotel. (C8): http://www.wmata.com/bus/timetables/md/c8.pdf

WMATA Bus (F6) New Carrollton-Silver Spring Line: The bus runs every 30 minutes from a stop near the College Park Metro Station. Exit at Adelphi Road and Tulane Drive, 0.11 mile NW from the hotel. Walk N on Adelphi Road.  Bear left on University Boulevard E. Walk 1 block NW on University Boulevard E to the hotel.(F6): http://www.wmata.com/bus/timetables/md/f4-6.pdf

TheBus (17) College Park Metrorail Station/Langley Park/Beltsville Line: The bus runs every 45 minutes from the College Park Metro Station. Exit at University Boulevard and Tulane Drive. Walk 0.12 mile E to the hotel.  (17): http://www.co.pg.md.us/Government/AgencyIndex/DPW&T/Transit/Route17Web.pdf

WMata Bus (J4) College Park-Bethesda Line: The bus runs every 25 minutes from a top near the College Park Petro Station. Exit at Campus Drive/Presidential Drive (Adelphi Road) (J4): http://www.wmata.com/bus/timetables/md/j4.pdf

WALKING

Walking from Adele H. Stamp Student Union to The Inn and Conference Center: (10 Minutes) If you walk from the Union (near lot HH) to the Inn and Conference Center it will take you 10 to 15 minutes. Walk past the Union on Campus Drive. Follow Campus Drive as it curves to the left. Do not take Preinkert Drive. Go past the Tawes Fine Arts Building. The Inn and Conference Center will be on the right side of the road.

Walking on the Outskirts of Campus (from the Metro to The Inn and Conference Center): (30  Minutes) Head W on Bowdoin Avenue toward Calvert Road. Bowdoin Avenue turns left and becomes Calvert Road. Turn left at Baltimore Avenue/US-1 South. Turn right at Guilford Drive. Continue on Mowatt Lane. Turn left at Campus Drive. Campus Drive turns slightly right and becomes University Boulevard E.

Walking through Campus (from the Metro to The Inn and Conference Center): (30 Minutes) Exit the metro station. Walk through tunnel under the tracks. Walk W on Calvert Road to US 1 (Baltimore Avenue). Turn right on US 1. Walk several blocks. Enter the University at Regents Drive. Turn left on Chapel Drive. Follow the sidewalk up the hill past the chapel with the big white steeple. Continue up the hill past Shoemaker Building. At the top of the hill on your right is Tydings Hall. Continue past Tydings Hall to Preinkert Drive.  Turn right on Preinkert, and walk up hill to Campus Drive.  Turn left on Campus Drive.  Continue on Campus Drive past traffic light. The Inn and Conference Center will be on the right, just before campus exit at University Boulevard / Route 193 and Adelphi Road. Regents Drive is the second traffic light on Baltimore Avenue.

PARKING
Parking will be provided in the UMUC parking garage adjacent to the Conference Center. The parking fee is covered in the JPSM contract with the hotel. This is not the Park and Ride lot. When you are leave give your parking ticket to the attendant and let him know you were attending the "JPSM Short Course".

DRIVING DIRECTIONS

From I-495 (the Capital Beltway): Take exit 25B to College Park. Exit to the right onto Route 1/Baltimore Boulevard. Go about 1 mile then take the exit ramp marked 193 West/UM Systems and Stadium. Route 193 is University Boulevard. Proceed on University to the 3rd traffic light at the intersection of Adelphi Road. University College will be visible on the left corner. Get in the far left turn lane and make a U-turn. Take an almost immediate right into the University College parking garage entrance.

From Downtown Washington DC: Take Rhode Island Avenue (Route 1 North). Enter Maryland. Go 4 ½ miles to College Park. Entering College Park, the road name changes to Baltimore Boulevard.  At traffic light, turn left turn on to Guilford Road. Once you pass the first big campus parking lot, Guilford becomes Mowatt Lane. Follow Mowatt Lane to the end. Proceed into the traffic circle, exiting the circle ¾ of the way around, onto Campus Drive (driving away from the main campus, with Parking Lot 1B on your right). Past the next traffic light at President's Drive, take a right into the Inn and Conference Center.

From Baltimore: Take I-95 South to the Capital Beltway (I-495). As you approach the Capital Beltway, the highway divides. Get in the second lane from the right and proceed to the right, toward Silver Spring/495 West. Very soon after the divide is a left exit for College Park. Take this exit, heading toward College Park and Route 1 South (Baltimore Boulevard). At the end of the exit go right onto Baltimore Boulevard. Go about 1 mile then take the exit ramp marked Route 193 West/UM System & Stadium (Route 193 is University Boulevard). Proceed on University to the third traffic light, the intersection of Adelphi Rd. University College will be visible on the left. Get in the left turn lane and make a U-turn. Take an almost immediate right into the University College parking garage entrance.

MARC TRAIN
Camden Line: Only select Camden Line trains stop at the College Park Metro station. The station is unstaffed so riders must buy a ticket on the train. http://www.mtamaryland.com/services/marc/serviceInformation/stationinfo.cfm

AIRPORTS

DCA- RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT (20 Miles)
Super Shuttle: For information, call 1-800-BLUEVAN. www.supershuttle.com
Ronald Reagan National Airport Metro: Pedestrian bridges connect the terminal B and C to the metro. Transfer to the Green Line. Exit at the College Park Metro Station.

IAD-WASHINGTON DULLES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (35 Miles)
Washington Flyer Express Bus: http://www.washfly.com/
Metro Bus (5A): http://www.wmata.com/bus/timetables/va/05a.pdf

BWI- BALTIMORE / WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (30 Miles)
AMTRAK (Acela Express, Northeast Regional or Vermonter Line): www.amtrak.com
BWI Express Metro Bus (B30): http://www.wmata.com/bus/timetables/md/b30.pdf
Super Shuttle: Call (888) 826-2700 for information or to arrange service. www.supershuttle.com

JPSM SHORT COURSE
Questions for this course should be directed to the JPSM Short Course, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson Street, Room 4050, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2321, Phone: (800) 937-9320, Fax: (734) 764-8263, Email: jpsmshort@isr.umich.edu.

Short Courses: www.jpsm.org/shortcourses
Sponsor Affiliate List: projects.isr.umich.edu/jpsm/info.cfm#sponsors
JPSM Home Page: www.jpsm.org